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Project information

Quantitative framework for forecasting PV capture prices and evaluating low-price risk in the Iberian electricity market

J.P. Chaves A. Ramos M.A. Rios-Ocampo J.F. Gutiérrez

December 2025 - March 2026

Funding entity Everest Insurance (Ireland) DAC, Sucursal en España


The objective of the collaboration proposal is to design, develop, and validate a robust, transparent, and fully explainable quantitative framework capable of forecasting Iberian day-ahead electricity prices and estimating the PV capture price for 2026–2027. The framework must enable a rigorous assessment of the probability and drivers of low-price events, ultimately supporting Everest Insurance in the pricing and structuring of insurance products linked to PV market risk.


Layman's summary: The objective of the collaboration proposal is to design, develop, and validate a robust, transparent, and fully explainable quantitative framework capable of forecasting Iberian day-ahead electricity prices and estimating the PV capture price for 2026–2027. The framework must enable a rigorous assessment of the probability and drivers of low-price events, ultimately supporting Everest Insurance in the pricing and structuring of insurance products linked to PV market risk.



Techniques employed: Optimization, regression analysis and artificial intelligence



Everest2025